Working Papers

Abstract

Inflation and Productive Capacity: An Empirical Risk-Reduction Model

August 23, 2021

An economy’s ability to provide food, energy, and manufactured goods for its population to consume reduces the chance that it experiences high consumer price inflation. However, no research has been done on exactly how much of these critical goods a country needs to be able to produce to keep inflation low and manageable. In this paper, I use an empirical risk reduction model to analyze over seven hundred and fifty data points from twenty-five countries over a thirty-eight-year period to show that a country can significantly reduce it chance of experiencing medium inflation and virtually eliminate the risk of hyperinflation by improving productive capacity such that its output of critical goods is approximately 174% of what the average person would consume in a country with a high standard of living.

Abstract

MMT Banking Primer

April 8, 2022

Modern Monetary Theory illustrates how governments control the use of currency, including the private banking system’s ability to create credit. Additionally, MMT’s framework argues that governments who want to encourage households to purchase consumer goods can focus on directly increasing those individuals’ deposit accounts at commercial banks—as manipulating reserve balances is inconsequential. In this short primer, we will explain the liabilities of the banking system and how the entities in the banking system interact as they hold and transfer liabilities between one another. Then, we will explain the implications this system has for the theory of state money and for monetary policy.